International drilling & production: Upstream work outside the U.S. will be up slightly

OLIVIA KABELL, Associate Editor  

As we now reach the mid-point of the decade, some factors in the global oil and gas markets have subsided, others remain present, and new ones have appeared. For instance, effects from the Covid pandemic five years ago have faded considerably. On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war has hit its three-year anniversary this month and shows no sign of ending shortly, despite recent American intervention to try to broker a peace deal. And thus, the changes underway in the global natural gas market continue, with the U.S. leading in gas exports. 

One item that popped up early in 2024 was the “pause” that former President Joe Biden imposed on the granting of new LNG export licenses. That situation impacted the global gas market for most of last year, but it has now disappeared as fast as it emerged, thanks to the Executive Order issued by current President Donald Trump, which reverses Biden’s action.  

Another item that emerged last year and continues into 2025 is a perception that an oversupply of oil persists on the market. This is despite OPEC+ cutting output by 5.85 MMbpd, equal to about 5.7% of global supply, in a series of agreed steps since 2022. Accordingly, on Feb. 3, 2025, OPEC+ agreed to hold off on any supply increases until after the end of March. The group will stick to its policy of gradually raising oil production from April forward. 

Among new factors affecting the markets, perhaps the most impactful is the recent inauguration of the new Trump administration. From day one, President Donald J. Trump has been instituting a whole new energy regime, one that puts an emphasis on oil and gas dominance. At the same time, so-called “green” policies featuring renewables are being deemphasized or eliminated. Regulatory barriers and environmental blockades on new oil and gas development are being modified and torn down, albeit over a period of time. This should create a far more favorable climate for upstream oil and gas activity in the U.S. The question is how much extra activity it will actually stimulate. 

Indicators. The number of wells drilled outside the U.S. last year totaled 41,685, down just 0.4% from the 41,844 wells tallied during 2023. It should be pointed out that the global drilling total last year was impacted by Russian drilling. In 2023, Russia had posted its highest well total since the break-up of the Soviet Union. But last year, Russian operators pulled back on the torrid pace, and the country’s drilling dropped 7.5%. Meanwhile, the Middle East boosted activity 7.9% during 2024. Meanwhile, South American drilling was off 17.6%, and Africa was off 7.9%. The Far East/South Asia remained solid, posting a 3.1% increase in activity.  

This year, we expect international growth to be led by South America and the Far East/South Asia, with the Middle East remaining completely flat, albeit at a high level. Overall, offshore drilling will fare better than onshore activity, with activity expected to rise 2.1%. The offshore market will be stimulated by deepwater activity in places like Guyana, Brazil, Namibia and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. 

Given the aforementioned factors, along with World Oil’s surveys of international petroleum ministries and departments, our editorial staff forecasts 2025 E&P activity outside the U.S., as follows: 

• Global drilling, excluding the U.S., will increase 0.9%, Table 1.
• Global offshore drilling is forecast to gain 2.1%, with gains expected in every region, Table 2.
• Canadian drilling will decline 2.6%, while Mexican drilling will improve 10.8%. 
• Four of eight regions are likely to post drilling gains this year.     

Meanwhile, after gaining just 0.5% during 2023, world crude and condensate production (Table 3) slowed its growth even more during 2024 to just 0.4%, averaging 82.785 MMbpd. Over the course of 2024, the U.S. increased its oil production another 344,000 bpd (per state and federal data) to average 13.278 MMbpd for the year, compared to 2023’s rate.  

NORTH AMERICA 

Activity in North America outside the U.S. is forecast to decline overall, dipping 2.1% to a total well count of 5,858.  Offshore drilling, on the other hand, will likely see a small uptick of 5.4% to 234 total wells. Regional oil production, including the U.S., averaged 20.249 MMbpd, up 3.8%. 

Canada. The oil and gas industry continues to push back against emission caps from lame duck Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration.  Despite this, Canadian majors achieved record oil sands production and continue aiming for more from the world’s third-largest reserves.  Considering legislative friction and an uncertain energy policy ahead of a national election, World Oil anticipates drilling activity to decrease -2.6%, with an 18.2% drop in offshore drilling, Fig. 1. Canadian oil production averaged 5.077 MMbpd, up 10.5%. For more on Canadian activity, please turn to the feature article on Canada in this issue.

Fig. 1. Canadian drilling will be down moderately this year, as the industry sorts out the regulatory front with the lame duck federal administration. Image: Akita Drilling.

Mexico. Activity from Pemex is unlikely to rise significantly in 2025, with the state-owned company aiming to combat debt with a freeze on new contracts in fourth-quarter 2024 and forward. However, the lack of activity may open the door wider to the private sector, reinforced by positive comments from Pemex. As such, World Oil forecasts drilling activity to increase 10.8%, with offshore work rising 7%. Mexican oil production slipped 4.0%, to 1.858 MMbpd. 

Cuba. Despite minimal activity in previous years, outside operators aim to establish permanent production in the country, focused on Block 9.  Previous ambitions to achieve first cargoes in 2024 were thwarted by a heavy rainy season for Cuba, though drilling activity has persisted through early 2025.  This year’s drilling looks to target a 16-MMbbl reservoir, while pre-bid seismic projects are aimed at investigating a potential 46 MMbbl in further recoverable resources.  

SOUTH AMERICA 

Regional drilling should increase 13.1% during 2025, totaling 1,825 wells, while offshore drilling is predicted to total 137 wells, for a 7% increase.  Activity in the region continues to center around Guyana’s fast pace, with Brazil and Argentina showing steady work as well. Meanwhile, Colombia, Venezuela and Suriname are struggling to find similar success, due to a variety of financial and geopolitical factors. Regional oil production averaged 6.992 MMbpd, up 4.7%. 

Argentina. The Vaca Muerta shale and its estimated 308 Tcfg resources continues to be a key point of interest in Argentina, with some projections suggesting that the country could become one of the top three producers in the region. Existing activity is being boosted by various LNG and infrastructure projects, along with a record energy trade surplus for the country, announced in early 2025.  Thus, World Oil forecasts a 4.5% rise in drilling, with offshore work remaining flat. Argentina’s oil production improved 7.8%, to 694,200 bpd.  

Brazil. Activity throughout Brazil does not look to slow down any time soon, as the country focuses on maximizing production from existing older assets within Tupi field and the Campos basin, Fig. 2. Newer assets also remain a focus, with the Raia natural gas development set for start-up in 2028 and first production from the Mero-3 development announced in fourth-quarter 2024. 

Fig. 2. The BÚZIOS 7/FPSO Almirante Tamandaré began production in Brazil’s pre-salt during February 2025. Image: Petrobras.

That same quarter, state-owned Petrobras also outlined plans for over $100 billion in E&P project spending over the next five years through 2029, aiming to increase oil and gas output 19% by the end of that period.  All told, World Oil anticipates drilling activity to increase 3.9% in 2025, with a more substantial 9.9% uptick in offshore drilling. Brazilian oil production was off 2.7%, at 3.31 MMbpd.  

Guyana and Suriname. Activity in Guyana remains on the rise, with ExxonMobil aiming for its Uaru and Whiptail projects to go onstream in 2027, boosting production well beyond the 608,000-bpd level of 2024. Meanwhile, promising comments from the Guyanese president suggest that activity will have legislative support. At the same time, Suriname struggles to find similar success with a more gas-heavy crude mix.  As such, World Oil expects drilling (all offshore) to nearly double for Guyana, with an 87.5% uptick expected, though this increase represents a small number of wells to begin with. Suriname experienced a lull in its drilling during 2024, but activity will pick up nearly 500% to close to 30 wells in 2025.  

Colombia. Gas is the main topic of discussion in Colombia, with predictions of rising domestic demand putting pressure on the need for additional resources. Hopes are riding high on the Guajira basin discovery that was struck in fourth-quarter 2024, with a confirmed 6 Tcfg that would triple current reserves. However, current development timelines may not align with rising domestic demand, prompting a ministry push to speed up time-to-production. Thus, World Oil predicts drilling to make a 36.4% jump in 2025, with offshore activity remaining at one well per year. Colombian oil production remained nearly level at 773,000 bpd. 

Venezuela. Activity in Venezuela remains minimal in the wake of reinstated U.S. sanctions following the country’s most-recent election cycle. The country has looked to both Iran and India as possible partners, but swap agreements with Iran stalled in 2024, while India exited a deal later that same year. As such, World Oil anticipates a 26.7% increase in drilling (from a small number of wells), with no offshore activity. 

WESTERN EUROPE 

Activity in the region continues to be led by Norway, with new discoveries and planned investment driving the momentum, Fig. 3.  The UK, meanwhile, seems to be focused largely on decommissioning, with a difficult legislative climate for the oil and gas industry. All told, World Oil expects regional drilling to increase 6.9% to 309 wells, while offshore activity is anticipated to grow 5.8 to 256 wells. Western European oil production averaged 2.671 MMbpd, down 2.1%. 

Fig. 3. North Sea drilling for 2025 will be driven largely by Norwegian discoveries and production goals. Image: Valaris.

Norway aims to keep up its drilling and natural gas momentum from late 2024, with 40 exploration wells planned for the year, so far. Exploration efforts paid off with two discoveries in the North Sea during fourth-quarter 2024, adding a collective estimated 40 MMboe to 85 MMboe to recoverable resources.  Finally, Equinor plans to spend $5.7 billion annually during the next few years in pursuit of supplying 40 Bcm of gas annually through 2035, added to record 2024 oil and gas project spending of $22.9 billion. As such, World Oil expects drilling to increase 7.3%, all of it offshore. Norwegian oil output was off 1.2% at 1.792 MMbpd. 

UK. In the UK, the industry continues to struggle with governmental friction and financial uncertainty.  While moves to increase and extend existing windfall tax policy were tempered in fourth-quarter 2024, policy approach continues to cause difficulties for oil and gas.  Meanwhile, decommissioning efforts remain solidly underway in the North Sea, with UK operators aiming to seal 200 wells annually.  Despite these negative factors, World Oil does anticipate drilling overall to increase 6.8%, almost all of it offshore. British oil production was down 5.1% at 660,000 bpd. 

EASTERN EUROPE/FSU 

Ramifications of the Ukraine invasion of 2022 continue to impact gas markets in the region, with Russia, in particular, facing increased sanctions in addition to prior OPEC+ cuts.  Meanwhile, others in the region, like Azerbaijan, look to capture some of the European gas demand with increased exports, while Kazakhstan remains committed to steady oil production and development.  As such, World Oil expects drilling activity to decrease in the region 4.4% down to 10,838 wells, with offshore drilling rising 6.5% to 115 wells. Regional oil production was down 3.1%, at 12.725 MMbpd.  

Russia. Production in Russia remains lowered, in line with two earlier OPEC+ cuts.  Meanwhile, gas flows to Ukraine, per prior agreements, halted in first-quarter 2025, adding to a market already in flux as traditional consumers in Europe and Slovakia seek replacement suppli.es. Sanctions against Russian operators and shipping were also expanded in late-2024/early-2025 on behalf of both the UK and U.S. Plus, Russian operators have backed off of their torrid drilling pace of 2022 and 2023, Fig 4. With all of this in mind, World Oil anticipates drilling to dip 5% in the country. Russian oil production was off 3.6%, at 9.915 MMbpd. 

Fig. 4. After two years of accelerated drilling, Russian operators eased off that pace last year and will continue a more moderate rate during 2025. Image: Lukoil.

Kazakhstan. Activity is focused on oil. Tengiz field remains the country’s center of oil activity, with a major expansion completed by Chevron in first-quarter 2025 that aims to boost production to 1.0 MMbpd by mid-2025. This follows a 3% drop in Kazakhstan’s oil production during 2024, which the country hopes to counter in 2025. 

Azerbaijan. Gas is the focus for Azerbaijan, with aims to raise annual gas production to 49 Bcm by 2033, dovetailing with efforts to increase gas exports to Europe. As a part of this, the country seeks to develop up to 4 Tcfg in estimated reserves from the West Chirag platform, with first gas targeted for 2025. 

AFRICA 

Ongoing attention on Namibia’s Orange basin discoveries has propelled a shift in the region away from onshore activity towards offshore development.  Additional discoveries in Nigeria, Egypt and Equatorial Guinea will likely drive activity. World Oil anticipates regional drilling to decline 0.7% to 958 total wells, while offshore drilling will decrease 2% to 196 wells. Regional oil production fell 2.7%, to 6.602 MMbpd.  

Angola hopes to ramp up activity with 15 new concessions, beginning late-2024 into 2025, in addition to a new deepwater survey conducted early 2025.  The Sanha Lean Gas Connection project also achieved first gas in late 2024 after phase one’s completion, adding a total 300 MMcfgd to production, once phase two of development is complete. Support from majors and a promising discovery in Block 15 could bode well for increased activity.  Still, World Oil does not anticipate an immediate uptick, with a 4.8% drop in drilling expected, and all wells are offshore. Angolan oil production remain nearly flat at 1.144 bpd.  

Egypt. Gas remains a point of focus in Egypt, with Zohr field resuming production late 2024, after shutdowns caused by conflict in the region. The country also reduced its renewables energy mix target from 58% to 40% by 2040, in line with this focus. Activity looks to ramp up, following a discovery in late 2024 that added an estimated 286 Tcfg to existing reserves. As such, World Oil expects drilling to increase slightly (0.8%), with offshore drilling dipping 5.4%. Egyptian oil production fell 4.4%, to 554,100 bpd.  

Equatorial Guinea. Despite relatively minimal activity over the past few years, Equatorial Guinea aims to boost its oil and gas production. Efforts look to be focused on improving production from mature assets and encouraging fresh drilling and exploration. Meanwhile, the late-2024 discovery of 743 MMboe in recoverable resources has reignited disputes between EG and Gabon over the Mbanie island territory, with a final ruling expected sometime in 2025. 

Libya. After a period of political dispute that more than halved production earlier in the year, Libya climbed back up to over 1 MMbpd in fourth-quarter 2024. Other areas of activity also seem to be on a trend of recovery, with majors returning to gas drilling after a ten-year hiatus. The country also plans to launch its first oil exploration tender in more than a decade, scheduled in first-quarter 2025, with an ambitious $17 billion in spending planned for infrastructure in the coming years.  Even so, World Oil forecasts drilling to decrease 3.4% in 2025. Libyan oil production averaged 1.138 MMbpd, down 7.1%.  

Namibia. Despite earlier excitement about Namibia’s Orange Basin (Fig. 5) being the “new Guyana,” late-2024 drilling activity found a more gas-heavy mix of reserves, prompting development to pivot to expanding gas infrastructure, pushing back first production to 2029 and beyond. An early 2025 announcement by Shell also saw new geological difficulties and technical challenges for the Orange basin’s oil resources, which would make development fiscally challenging.

Fig. 5. Orange basin success offshore Namibia has prompted many majors to shift focus to offshore African assets. Image: Shell.

Nigeria. Despite onshore exits by majors earlier in 2024, Nigeria looks to expand activity offshore with new exploration offerings and amendments to investor policies. The country has attracted $13.5 billion in FIDs as of end-2024 and aims to increase production to 2.7 MMbopd by 2027. Accordingly, World Oil anticipates drilling to decrease 0.9%, while offshore drilling is set to increase 3%. Nigerian oil production rose nearly 3%, to 1.483 MMbpd. 

South Africa looks to expand production, with a focus on unconventional gas development despite ongoing challenges in the Brulpadda and Luiperd fields. The country also aims to amend current regulations to encourage greater investment. Additionally, the country seeks to launch a new NOC in second-quarter 2025. World Oil anticipates only one to two offshore wells to be drilled during 2025. 

MIDDLE EAST 

Ongoing conflict during 2024 and early 2025 continues to have ripple effects across the region in terms of production, development and investment. The combination of conflict-stalled activity, continued OPEC+ production quotas and a broad goal of expanding production across the region means that drilling activity overall will be virtually flat, with single-well growth to a total of 2,840 wells for 2025. Offshore drilling, meanwhile, will post a slight gain of 0.9% to 229 wells, Fig. 6. 

Fig. 6. NOCs in the Middle East aim to continue a high level of drilling activity into 2025, including offshore projects. Image: ADNOC.

Saudi Arabia. Activity in Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah gas field continues to progress, with contracts for phase three awarded in early 2025.  Meanwhile, oil exports saw a dip in the first half of the year before hitting a three-month high in third-quarter 2024, though the country has stuck to its OPEC+ production quota.  World Oil anticipates drilling to decline 2.9%, with offshore activity dipping 3.8%. 

UAE. The UAE continues substantial drilling activity with a $1.7 billion unconventionals campaign and record third-quarter 2024 results under the direction of ADNOC Drilling.  Meanwhile, state-owned ADNOC has awarded over $600 million in contracts to expand manufacturing and seismic surveying efforts, as well as onshore equipment.  ADNOC also has begun contracting output from its Ruwais LNG plant, with two agreements signed and over 7 MMtpa of LNG committed to customers as of fourth-quarter 2024.  Overall, World Oil forecasts drilling activity to grow a slight 0.5%, with offshore drilling to remain level with last year. 

Iran looks to revive existing asset production in light of declining output and increasing domestic demand, with a focus on the South Pars gas field.  Ongoing economic sanctions against the country have made investment difficult, particularly in light of the $3 billion needed to add a desired 450,000 bopd to output capacity. Ongoing conflict in the region has also caused uncertainty for development and production. Iranian oil production rose 11.8%, to 4.095 MMbpd. 

Iraq aims to grow reserves to 160 Bbbl, with hopes to grow production capacity to 6 MMbpd by 2028.  To that end, Iraq looks to revive production at Kirkuk field, with an estimated 9 Bbbl in remaining oil reserves. The country also boasted a new East Baghdad discovery in early 2025, which could add a potential 2 Bbbl of oil to reserves.  The Iraqi-Kurdistan pipeline saw a final court ruling in early 2025 that could allow transport to resume after over a year of closure. Even so, continued OPEC+ cuts into 2025 could curb any expanded production. World Oil anticipates drilling to increase 0.7. Iraqi oil production increased 2.3% to 4.455 MMbpd.  

Oman looks to boost activity, with over $2 billion raised from one IPO, and another to follow, marking the largest Gulf IPO since ADNOC Gas’s 2023 IPO.  Oman also launched new oil and gas concession areas offshore, to attract further investment, while operators continue to hold high expectations for the offshore Kunooz prospect and its estimated 100 MMbbl of oil. World Oil expects drilling (all onshore) to show be up slightly. 

Israel’s activity has been substantially affected after conflict initially broke out in the region two years ago and escalated during 2024. Several deals have been delayed, due to the disruption. Meanwhile, an estimated 7-15 Bcm in reserves from the 2022 Hercules discovery were confirmed late 2024, adding to the country’s existing gas reserves. 

FAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA 

Natural gas looks to be the focus for the region, with activity picking up in several countries, Fig. 7. Overall, the region remains fairly consistent, with a 4.2% increase to 19,157 wells predicted. Offshore drilling will increase marginally, to 1,425 wells. Regional oil production was nearly flat at 6.434 MMbpd. 

Fig. 7. Rising global and domestic gas demand has prompted South and East Asia to pursue greater gas infrastructure and production. Image: Petronas.

China continues to lead drilling for the region, with various offshore projects in the South China Sea coming online over the course of second-half 2024 and early 2025. The country also looks to expand shale gas operations in the Sichuan oil and gas basin to offset LNG imports that continue to outpace domestic production. However, state-owned CNOOC announced goals to lower oil output targets by 20 MMbbl to 40 MMbbl and flatten spending in 2025. World Oil anticipates drilling activity to jump 4.6% higher, with offshore drilling to increase 1%. Chinese oil production was up 1.3%, to 4.248 MMbpd. 

India. After exiting previous deals with Venezuela, India looks to the Middle East and Guyana for oil imports. Meanwhile, the country plans to double down on oil and gas development, with one agreement already signed with support from majors in early 2025. Also, to that end, a $10 million contract for survey work was awarded late 2024. Accordingly, we anticipate drilling to increase 3.7%, with offshore drilling to rise 4.5%. India’s oil output slipped 0.1%, to 602,600 bpd. 

Indonesia. In fourth-quarter 2024, Indonesia announced oil and gas reforms that aimed to boost production by 200,000 bpd, as the country seeks greater energy security. With discoveries in Sulawesi and South Sumatra adding an estimated 4.7 Tcfg and 850 MMbbl of oil—or more—that goal may be in reach if investment continues. Meanwhile, the country announced a six-block oil and gas auction in late 2024, with a combined estimated 48 Bboe. Construction on the Genting FLNG facility is also underway as of second-half 2024, with plans to be ready for raw gas by early 2028.  We forecast drilling to increase 0.6%, with offshore activity to rise 9.8%. Indonesian oil production declined 4.7%, to 582,300 bpd.  

Malaysia. State-owned Petronas aims to boost oil and gas production to 2 MMboed between 2025 and 2027, compared with 2024’s average 1.7 MMboed.  As part of this ramp-up in activity, Petronas also looks to drill 15 exploration wells each year for the next two years.  Malaysia, as a whole, has also been conducting drilling and exploration operations in the Malay basin and the South China Sea, despite some friction with Malaysia’s neighbor, China, concerning the latter. World Oil anticipates drilling to increase 3.9%, with offshore drilling to rise 4%. Malaysian oil output fell 5.3%, to 472,900 bpd.  

SOUTH PACIFIC 

Gas remains a focus for the South Pacific, in light of rising demand for LNG globally and the region’s neighboring Asian markets being a big driver for this growth, Fig. 8. Australia’s activity continues, albeit at a slower pace, as the country faces governmental friction and looks to see where U.S. shale gas activity may lead. Papua New Guinea, on the other hand, is looking ahead, with gas development underway to prevent possible future feedstock shortages to the PNG LNG project. Overall, World Oil anticipates drilling to rise 1.9%, with 272 wells to be drilled, and offshore drilling to increase 7.1%, to 30 total wells. 

Fig. 8. Gas development continues across Australia and Papua New Guinea. Image: Chevron.

Australia continues to lead the region in drilling activity, while a potential LNG train expansion for the Darwin LNG project is being considered.  Meanwhile, Australian major Santos has deferred FID for the $3 billion-plus Dorado project and its estimated 162 MMbbl, due both to cost cutting measures and a shifting interest towards U.S. assets and activity. World Oil expects drilling to rise 1.2%, with offshore drilling to increase 10%. Australian oil production fell 3.9%, to 269,100 bpd.  

Papua New Guinea. The Papua New Guinea (PNG) LNG project’s current output of 6.9 MMtpa of LNG continues to see development from majors in hopes of preventing feedstock shortages. To that end, the Angore development came online in fourth-quarter 2024, supplying up to 350 MMcfgd to the project, though this pales in comparison to the long-awaited P’nyang gas field’s 4.4 Tcfg resources. However, FID is slated for 2029, and further delays could push this date back further. World Oil forecasts drilling activity to remain level with 2024’s figure.